FX.co ★ US Job Growth Expected to Cool in July

In July 2025, US nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to have increased by 110,000, marking the smallest rise in five months and a deceleration compared to June's addition of 147,000. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly rise to 4.2% from 4.1%, while wage growth is likely to accelerate to 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. Overall, the forthcoming report is predicted to indicate a continued cooling of the labor market. This trend is attributed to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs, trade, and immigration policies, prompting many employers to adopt a more cautious approach to hiring. The projected figures fall below the three-month average increase of 150,000, yet they continue to highlight a fundamentally strong labor market. Monthly payroll expansions are anticipated to range between 100,000 and 170,000, sufficient to accommodate the growth in the working-age population.