FX.co ★ Oil Holds at 2-Month Lows

WTI crude futures stabilized around $63 per barrel on Wednesday, maintaining levels close to a two-month low due to signs of diminishing demand and in anticipation of forthcoming US–Russia discussions. Recent data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a rise in US crude inventories by 1.52 million barrels last week, coupled with a decline in gasoline stocks and a slight increase in distillates, suggesting that the peak of summer demand may soon conclude. Geopolitical tensions persisted as President Trump downplayed the likelihood of significant progress, while Ukrainian President Zelensky refused to make any territorial compromises. Regarding the market outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US crude oil production will reach a record peak of 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, with a subsequent decline in 2026 as lower prices dampen market activity. OPEC maintained its 2025 demand forecast but adjusted its 2026 growth estimate upward by 100,000 bpd to a total of 1.38 million bpd, anticipating production increases in other regions as the US production slows. Additionally, the US Department of Energy has raised its forecast for this year's global oil surplus to 1.7 million bpd.