FX.co ★ World Bank Lifts China 2025 Growth, Warns of Slower 2026 Pace

The World Bank has revised its growth forecast for China in 2025, raising it to 4.8% from the previous estimate of 4.0%. However, it cautions that growth may decelerate in 2026 due to diminished consumer and business confidence alongside weak new export orders. In its biannual economic outlook for East Asia and the Pacific released on Tuesday, the global financial institution stated, "Growth in China, the region's largest economy, is expected to decline due to an anticipated slowdown in export expansion and a probable decrease in fiscal stimulus owing to increasing public debt, coupled with ongoing structural deceleration." September statistics revealed that China's factory output and retail sales experienced the smallest increase in nearly a year, indicating that the economy is yet to see a robust recovery. Analysts anticipate that Beijing might implement additional stimulus measures to align with its approximate annual growth target of 5%. The World Bank also anticipates the East Asia and Pacific region will grow by 4.4% in 2025, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase, while maintaining a 4.5% growth forecast for 2026.