FX.co ★ Corn Rises to Over 1-Month High

Corn futures have surged to approximately $4.30 per bushel, reaching peaks last seen in September, driven by robust demand and limited supply. On the demand side, weekly U.S. export inspections remain strong, thus keeping short-term shipments high and reducing the amount of available corn. Ethanol production and exports also remain sufficiently high to maintain domestic corn activity. Regarding supply, global inventories are relatively low, especially after accounting for China’s strategic reserves, leaving the world with one of the smallest stock-to-use ratios seen in decades, which offers minimal room for unexpected changes. This inherent supply tightness is further exacerbated by adverse weather conditions in South America, with dryness in central Brazil and parts of Argentina posing a threat to safrinha crop planting and the yield of the second crop, which typically helps rebalance next year’s supply. Additionally, recent disruptions in the release of official U.S. data have heightened the market's sensitivity to actual shipment and weather developments, intensifying price reactions to any confirmations regarding crop and supply flows.