FX.co ★ CFNAI Slightly Up in September

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to -0.21 in September 2025, up from -0.31 in August. Although the data was released later than expected, it points to a less severe decline in economic activity. Despite this slight improvement, the index has remained negative for the sixth month running. In September, indicators related to production contributed -0.10 to the index, a slight improvement from August’s -0.13. Meanwhile, the components for sales, orders, and inventories showed a minor weakening, contributing -0.07 compared to the previous -0.05. Similarly, the personal consumption and housing category worsened, moving from -0.03 to -0.06. However, employment-related indicators provided some relief as they turned positive, contributing +0.01 in September, a recovery from August's -0.11, offering a small counterbalance to the overall economic slowdown.