FX.co ★ Heating Oil Surges to Early-December Highs

U.S. heating oil futures have climbed to approximately $2.33 per gallon, reaching levels seen in early December. This rise is attributed to a significant, weather-induced increase in winter heating demand, coupled with tightening conditions in the distillate market and strong crude prices. The forecast for an intense Arctic blast has heightened heating demand indicators throughout the U.S., leading to increased fuel consumption in the near term and raising the chances of a shift from natural gas to heating oil, where infrastructure allows. Concurrently, U.S. distillate production and refinery operations have slowed from recent volumes, reducing product availability and diminishing the usual seasonal buffer that caters to stronger winter demand. This strain on supply has been further exacerbated by logistical challenges. Security concerns and rising insurance costs in the Black Sea have complicated Russian and Caspian oil exports, and a fire-induced shutdown at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field has cut export cargoes from the market.