FX.co ★ Lumber Falls to 5-Week Low

Lumber futures retreated toward $580 per thousand board feet, the lowest level in five weeks, as softening residential construction demand collided with heavy seasonal inventories and aggressive dealer discounting. In the United States, December housing starts came in at a 1.404 million SAAR, and overall 2025 activity is projected to be essentially flat compared with 2024. Single-family starts are down roughly 7% year over year, while single-family units under construction have declined 8.4%, curbing near-term framing lumber consumption. In Canada, January home sales fell 5.8%, underscoring a weaker demand backdrop across North America.

On the supply side, winter storms have slowed jobsite activity more than mill production, leaving distributors and secondary sellers with elevated yard inventories that are being cleared at discounted prices, in some instances below replacement cost. The combination of slower construction-related drawdowns and persistent supply has widened basis levels and accelerated destocking across key distribution hubs.