FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Set for Strongest Weekly Gain Since April

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a fifth straight session on Friday to 4.17%, capping a weekly gain of nearly 20 basis points, the largest increase since April. The climb reflects mounting inflation fears driven by surging energy prices, leading investors to dial back expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year to just a single 25bps rate cut, down from two anticipated earlier in the week. The conflict with Iran has now entered its seventh day with no sign of de-escalation. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has all but ground to a halt, and Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that the turmoil could force Gulf producers to shut in output within weeks, potentially sending oil prices toward $150 per barrel. At the same time, traders are looking ahead to the upcoming US jobs report for further insight into labor-market conditions, with economists forecasting a moderation in hiring last month after a strong January reading.