FX.co ★ Wheat Rises on US Crop Concerns Ahead of WASDE

Wheat futures rose toward $6.20 per bushel on Monday, as worsening US crop conditions and mounting global supply risks outweighed downward pressure from robust harvests in other key producing regions. The USDA recently reported that winter wheat condition ratings fell 22% month-over-month, reflecting limited snow cover and intensifying drought across the southern Plains and stoking fears over yield potential.

Prices also drew support from expectations that Russia’s wheat exports could decline in the 2025/26 season, amid adverse weather and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven up energy and fertilizer costs, adding to production risks for farmers; urea prices have recently climbed by about 4.8%.

Nonetheless, upside for wheat futures may be capped by a stronger US dollar and plentiful global supplies following strong harvests in South America. Market participants are now looking ahead to Tuesday’s March WASDE report for updated forecasts on global wheat production and ending stocks.