FX.co ★ Lumber Retreats on Lackluster Demand

Lumber futures fell back toward $590 per thousand board feet as a cooling North American residential construction sector undermined the demand floor that had supported prices since January. The main downside pressure came from a slowdown in housing activity: single-family housing starts dropped 14.2% in March and building permits declined 5.4%, pointing to a sharp pullback in seasonal demand.

This demand deterioration was triggered by an 11-basis-point rise in mortgage rates to 6.45% after the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged amid a flare-up in global inflation. Although geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz initially pushed energy prices higher, the accompanying increase in financing costs and a 10% slide in US housing starts more than offset any potential impact from supply chain disruptions. In addition, a 2.4% rise in unsold builder inventory forced developers to cut prices, adding further pressure on lumber.