FX.co ★ Indian Rupee Eases Amid Middle East Uncertainty

The Indian rupee slipped to around 92.6 per US dollar, retreating slightly from a three-week high as lingering uncertainty over the US–Iran ceasefire weighed on sentiment and raised concerns about oil supply. Brent crude traded close to $97 per barrel, underscoring India’s vulnerability as a major net oil importer.

Markets remain cautious amid conflicting signals around the ceasefire’s implementation. Iran’s parliamentary speaker has accused the United States of breaching the agreement, pointing to restrictions on uranium enrichment and continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. At the same time, shipping companies are waiting for clearer assurances before fully resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

These factors are keeping investors alert to the risk of renewed disruptions to oil flows, which could drive energy prices higher and intensify pressure on India’s growth and inflation outlook. The Reserve Bank of India has left policy rates unchanged, attempting to balance elevated, oil-driven inflation risks against signs of slowing economic momentum. Some support for the rupee has come from domestic banks unwinding arbitrage positions, but if geopolitical tensions persist, the currency could gradually weaken toward 93.50 per dollar.