FX.co ★ US Inflation Poised to Surge as Iran War Fuels Energy Prices

The annual inflation rate in the US is expected to have accelerated to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp rise from 2.4% in February. The increase is largely attributed to higher energy costs associated with the war with Iran, as well as the ongoing pass-through of tariffs into consumer prices.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are estimated to have risen 0.9% in March, the largest gain since June 2022, following a 0.3% increase in February. The surge coincides with the US national average gasoline price climbing above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to have picked up, though more moderately, to 2.7% year over year in March—the highest reading in five months, up from 2.5% in both January and February. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices likely rose 0.3%, compared with a 0.2% increase in February.