FX.co ★ UK Gilt Yields Rise as Geopolitical Risks Fuel Inflation Fears

The yield on the UK’s 10-year gilt ended a volatile week at 4.77%, broadly unchanged from the previous week and remaining near its highest level in years. The move came as rising US–Iran tensions further undermined a fragile ceasefire, keeping markets unsettled. Gilt yields tracked higher oil prices, which rekindled inflation worries and strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Bank of England. Market pricing now implies at least one BoE rate increase by the end of 2026.

At the same time, Iran maintained its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering the most severe disruption to global energy supplies on record, while insisting that Lebanon be included in any peace negotiations. US President Donald Trump condemned Iran’s handling of oil shipments through the strategically vital waterway. Pakistan is due to host talks between the two sides this Saturday.