FX.co ★ Soybean Prices Near Mid-March Highs

Soybean futures rose to $11.70 per bushel, nearing their highest level since mid-March, driven by a weaker dollar and the USDA’s latest monthly supply-and-demand report. In its April outlook, the agency projected higher domestic crush but lower exports, leaving ending stocks unchanged overall.

The USDA increased its soybean crush estimate by 35 million bushels to a record 2.61 billion bushels, marking the fifth consecutive annual high. However, this gain was fully offset by a 35-million-bushel reduction in export projections, now at 1.54 billion bushels, as the agency cited intensified competition from South American suppliers. As a result, U.S. ending stocks held steady at 350 million bushels, essentially in line with market expectations of 349 million.

South American production forecasts were left unchanged, contrary to trade expectations for modest revisions. The USDA maintained Brazilian output at 6.614 billion bushels and Argentine production at 1.764 billion bushels. On the global balance sheet, ending stocks edged down to 124.79 million metric tons from 125.31 MMT in March, falling short of the trade’s average estimate of 125.51 MMT.