FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Firm

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.32% on Monday, holding near last week’s highs as stalled US–Iran peace efforts kept investors on edge amid persistent geopolitical tensions. President Donald Trump cancelled plans to dispatch senior envoys to Pakistan for a second round of talks with Iran, while Tehran reiterated it would not enter negotiations under threats or blockade conditions. Oil prices climbed again as the Middle East conflict entered its ninth week and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, stoking inflation fears and reinforcing expectations that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer or even tighten policy further. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, in a meeting that could be Jerome Powell’s last as chair before Kevin Warsh is expected to assume the role in May.