FX.co ★ Euro Starts Q3 on a Weak Note

The euro began the third quarter of 2026 at $1.14, hovering near a one-year low after a 2% decline against the US dollar in June. Market participants are focused on the ECB’s Sintra Forum and upcoming inflation data from the euro area’s largest economies, while the dollar remains underpinned by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year.

Particular attention is on today’s panel featuring ECB President Christine Lagarde and newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as investors look for guidance on their economic outlooks and the future path of monetary policy. At the same time, recent inflation readings across Europe have signaled easing price pressures, offering some relief to ECB policymakers.

Investors are also monitoring developments from US–Iran peace talks in Qatar, amid hopes for a durable ceasefire agreement, although no direct negotiations between the two parties are currently expected.