FX.co ★ US Hiring Expected to Cool in June

The US economy is projected to have added 110K jobs in June 2026, the smallest monthly increase in four months, following three straight months of stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll gains. In May, payrolls grew by 172K, though some analysts believe World Cup–related hiring may have provided a temporary lift to employment.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month. At the same time, average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month-over-month, in line with May’s increase, while annual wage growth is seen ticking up to 3.5% from 3.4%.

Despite the anticipated moderation in payroll growth, the June employment report is still likely to signal a resilient labour market.