FX.co ★ Offshore Yuan Holds Decline

The offshore yuan remained under pressure around 6.78 per dollar on Tuesday, as investors weighed expectations of slower economic growth against stronger-than-anticipated trade figures. China’s economy is forecast to grow 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 5% in the first quarter and close to the lower bound of Beijing’s 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5%. The slowdown reflects weak consumer spending, a protracted property downturn, and subdued private investment.

At the same time, June trade data signaled robust external demand. Exports surged 27% year-on-year to a record USD 412.4 billion, while imports climbed 36% to an all-time high of USD 286.8 billion, both beating market expectations. Consequently, the trade surplus widened to USD 125.6 billion. Strong global demand for AI-related hardware and rising semiconductor prices continued to support Asia’s trade flows, partially offsetting the drag from domestic economic softness. Investors are now looking to this month’s Politburo meeting for indications of possible policy measures to shore up growth.