FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Pullback

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note slipped to 4.66% on Thursday, extending its pullback after briefly touching a 19‑month high of 4.75% two sessions earlier, following weaker‑than‑expected producer price data. US producer prices were flat in July compared with the prior month, undershooting forecasts for a 0.2% gain and reinforcing the benign inflation signals seen in consumer price data the day before.

Together, the reports strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its meeting next month. However, declines in yields were more limited at the long end of the curve, as persistent concerns over energy supply kept near‑term inflation risks in focus.

These concerns were heightened by the ongoing depreciation of the Japanese yen, which raises the risk of renewed selling of US Treasuries by Japan—the largest foreign holder of US government debt—if authorities move to support the currency through intervention in the foreign exchange market. That anxiety was evident in the latest 10‑year note auction, which showed a relatively weak tail.