FX.co ★ Nickel Falls to 2-Month Low

Nickel traded around $16,550 per tonne, its lowest level since July, as expectations of higher Indonesian supply pressured prices. Indonesia’s Weda Bay Nickel, one of the world’s largest nickel mining operations, has restarted production after four months of care and maintenance, potentially adding ore back to the market. However, the ramp-up will be gradual, and output for the remainder of the year remains uncertain.

In addition, Indonesia’s 2026 mining quota has been set at 250–260 million wet tonnes, well below the 379 million tonnes scheduled for 2025, which will cap the scope for further increases in Indonesian ore supply.

At the macro level, the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while the dollar index has moved above 99, exerting broad downward pressure on base metals. Offsetting some of these bearish supply and macro factors, recent cuts to Chinese HPAL and MHP production have tightened the intermediate market, providing a counterweight to the Indonesian supply outlook.