FX.co ★ Ibovespa Wavers Amid Political Risks and Oil Rebound

The Ibovespa fluctuated between gains and losses around the 188,000 level on Wednesday, pressured by new election polling and volatile oil prices. An AtlasIntel survey for the October presidential race showed President Lula regaining a numerical lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, though the two remain in a statistical tie.

Oil prices turned higher and trimmed earlier losses amid uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the recent moderation in the oil rally, concerns about energy-driven inflation persisted. Adding to the cautious tone, the minutes from Copom’s latest meeting, released yesterday, were more hawkish than markets had anticipated.

Financial stocks weighed on the index, with Itaú, Bradesco, and Itaúsa each down more than 0.5%, while B3 dropped nearly 2%. Utilities also traded lower, with Axia and Sabesp slipping almost 1%. Vale declined close to 1% amid weak profitability among Chinese steelmakers, whereas Petrobras gained nearly 2%.