FX.co ★ US PCE Inflation Accelerated as Expected

The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026, its largest increase in six months, after a 0.3% gain in August and in line with market expectations. Goods prices advanced 0.8%, up from 0.3% in the prior month, driven by a 1.1% increase in nondurable goods, largely reflecting a 9.2% surge in gasoline and other energy goods. Inflation in durable goods also firmed, rising 0.2% after a 0.1% increase.

Services inflation held steady at 0.3%, with the main contribution coming from a 2.1% rise in transportation services. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.3%, its strongest monthly increase in four months and also matching forecasts.

On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% from 3.4% in August, while core PCE inflation edged up to 3.1% from 3.0%. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and has remained above the central bank’s 2% target since 2021.