FX.co ★ Mexico GDP Growth Tops Estimates

The Mexican economy expanded by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, slowing from 1.4% growth in Q2 but surpassing market expectations of a 0.7% increase, according to preliminary estimates. By sector, services grew 1.1%, industry rose 0.8%, while primary activities contracted 0.4%.

On an annual basis, non-seasonally adjusted data show GDP increased 3.2% in Q3, up from 2.1% in Q2. Over the first nine months of the year, the economy grew 1.9%.

The IMF expects Mexico’s GDP to grow 1.5% in 2026, a marked acceleration from 0.5% in 2025. The improvement is projected to be driven by sustained export momentum — including along AI-related value chains — and stabilizing investment, although trade-related and other uncertainties are still seen as weighing on overall activity.

In the first nine months of 2026, exports surged 30.4% at current prices. Shipments of electronic products and computer equipment have more than doubled year-on-year every month since March, according to Mexico’s Finance Minister. Imports increased at a slightly slower pace of 27.5%.