FX.co ★ Philippines GDP Growth Lowest Since 2009, Ex-Covid

The Philippines’ GDP grew 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2026, down from a revised 2.4% in Q2 and below market expectations of 3% growth. Excluding the COVID-19 period, this was the weakest expansion since Q4 2009, as soft agricultural output and high energy costs continued to drag on activity, while El Niño further amplified downside risks.

On the demand side, household consumption growth slowed to 2.4% from 2.9%, and government spending eased to 6.8% from 8.3%. Fixed investment remained in contraction, though the pace of decline moderated (-4.4% vs. -13.7%). Net trade made a positive contribution to headline growth: exports rose 8.6% (vs. 12.2% previously), while imports increased at a slower 7.7% pace (vs. 6.2%).

On the production side, agricultural output slipped 0.4% after growing 2% in the previous quarter, and services growth cooled to 9% from 10.2%. In contrast, industrial activity strengthened, with growth accelerating to 5.4% from 3% in Q2.

The Q3 outcome pushes overall growth further below the government’s already revised full-year target range of 3.5% to 4.5%.