FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Seen Slowing in October

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October 2026, half the 0.6% increase recorded in September, which was the largest monthly gain since April. Gasoline prices are projected to dip 0.9%. Core CPI is also anticipated to cool, slowing to 0.2% from 0.3%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain relatively contained.

However, the October inflation report will include an important caveat. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish 12-month percentage changes for October 2026 for any index lacking October 2025 data. October 2025 CPI figures were neither collected nor released due to the federal government shutdown. As a result, year-over-year inflation rates for both headline and core CPI will likely be unavailable.

In the meantime, the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Inflation Nowcasting model points to annual headline and core inflation rates of 3.7% and 2.5%, respectively.