There are growing concerns that the world will inevitably face energy shortages in the near future. Japan, the world's biggest importer of liquefied natural gas, has recently said that long-term LNG contracts that start before 2026 have been sold out. In other words, there is no extra gas to respond to unforeseen circumstances regarding energy supplies.
In this situation, the global economy will not be able to develop as it requires the expansion and modernization of production facilities. Whereas global inflation mainly stems from a decline in factory activity and disrupted supply chains. Given that there are no additional energy sources, it makes no sense to wait for an increase in production volumes. Therefore, shortages will persist.
Inflation will remain elevated for a few more years. Thus, the economic crisis is likely to be protracted.
The only thing that is currently holding back oil prices is concerns about the depth and duration of the global recession, which will inevitably have a negative impact on demand. Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook for oil remains fairly upbeat.
While trading upwards, Brent crude oil futures touched the level of $90 per barrel. As a result, the volume of long positions decreased and the benchmark bounced down. If the price fails to consolidate above the 90 mark, the asset will extend a sell-off. In this case, the current bounce may well turn into a full-fledged downtrend. If the price settles above the control level (90) on the four-hour chart, buyers will return to the market, thus pushing the quote up to the area of 92-94.
Now let's get back to energy supplies. The Japanese government’s announcement regarding LNG shortages contributes to a long-term uptrend in the ruble. After all, only Russia is able to offer the global market additional energy volumes. The problem is merely sanctions. Apparently, Western countries will have to somewhat ease them in order to cope with the energy crunch. However, the new reality makes this process extremely difficult and long. So the ruble will hardly gain strong upside momentum in the near future.
The Russian currency will most likely continue to post modest gains, which sounds more like a sideways move. In other words, any decline in the value of the ruble will be limited and short-lived.
From a technical point of view, the situation remains unchanged.
Meanwhile, gold keeps trading around $1,740 per ounce. Moreover, things are unlikely to change in the near future. Investors have questions about the pace of interest rate increases by major central banks, which allows gold to remain relatively stable. Shortly after market participants receive some clues about the future of the monetary policy, the asset will resume its decline to $1,700 per ounce. At the same time, if there are no signs of slower interest-rate hiking, gold will easily break through the $1,700 mark and head towards $1,600 per ounce.
A sell signal will be generated after the price fixes below the level of 1,730.
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