FX.co ★ 30.09.2022: Markets swing. Oil, gold resume gains. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB

30.09.2022: Markets swing. Oil, gold resume gains. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB

Oil continues to hover just below $90 per barrel. Until recently the asset has traded under pressure from both a stronger dollar across the board and fears of lower demand caused by a looming recession. But now market sentiment seems to be changing somewhat.

Western countries’ measures aimed at capping the price of Russian oil will soon come into force. In this regard, there are growing fears that this step will eventually backfire. That is, market participants are worried about reduced supply and energy shortages that may provoke a surge in prices. To mitigate the potential effect, major buyers try to buy the necessary volumes of oil in advance, which in turn boosts demand. Judging by the quotes’ dynamic, this factor is becoming predominant. Against this background, oil has every chance of rising above $90 per barrel in the near future and then heading towards $100.

In the meantime, Brent crude oil futures advanced to the level of $90 per barrel, where the pace of their upward cycle slowed. The volume of long positions is expected to increase after the price consolidates above the control level at least on the four-hour chart. Until then, the risk of a rebound remains.

Gold also gained value amid yesterday's slide in the dollar and its return to the levels ​​at which it was right before the UK government revealed its plan to support the economy. The yellow metal returned exactly to the same levels. However, its rally is purely a short-term phenomenon, while the dollar’s decline is largely due to revised interest rate forecasts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. According to many investors, the ECB will stick to a more aggressive interest rate path. Thus, the medium-term outlook for gold has only worsened. This means that the asset may soon return to the level of $1,600 per ounce.

Speaking of the Russian currency, the dollar fell below 58 rubles per dollar. This is due solely to its broad weakening. Notably, when the dollar advanced against major currencies, the ruble either held steady or gained value. Apparently, major players believe that there are no prerequisites for a decline in the Russian currency. And if the Ministry of Finance still does not resume foreign exchange interventions in the near future, the quotes will most likely return to 50 rubles per dollar within one or two weeks. Meanwhile, the chart shows sharp swings caused exclusively by fundamental factors. Investors are preparing for sanctions against the National Clearing Center, which will limit the exchange of euros and dollars in Russia.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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