FX.co ★ NewInForex | EUR/USD

EUR/USD Pairs Fundamental, Technical and Sentimental Overview (3rd Oct, 25) Fundamental Overview The EUR/USD currency pair, often called "Fiber," is exhibiting high volatility on the H4 timeframe as it reacts to a mix of economic data and geopolitical uncertainty. This analysis provides a simple breakdown of the Fundamental, Technical, and Sentimental picture. The core battle for EUR/USD remains the relative strength of the US Dollar versus the Euro. The US Dollar is currently seeing pressure due to factors like the ongoing concerns around a potential US Government shutdown and less aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations than previously anticipated. Recent softer-than-expected US employment data and a contraction in private sector payrolls further weaken the USD’s appeal. In contrast, the Euro (EUR) is finding some temporary support from this USD weakness, despite underlying concerns about the Eurozones manufacturing and services sectors. The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently holding a more neutral or wait-and-see stance on monetary policy, which offers no major directional push for the Euro. Technical Overview: H4 Timeframe The H4 chart shows that EUR/USD is trading within a corrective or consolidating phase after a recent push higher.

Current Price: Approximately 1.1724 Based on recent market data as of early October 2025. Support & Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: 1.1760 - 1.1780 A critical short-term level where sellers have stepped in recently. Major Resistance: 1.1820 Breakout above this confirms a stronger bullish continuation. Immediate Support: 1.1700 - 1.1710 Psychological level and confluence with moving averages. Major Support: 1.1640 A break here signals a strong bearish reversal. Indicator Readings: Moving Average Convergence Divergence: The MACD line is near the signal line and the zero line, indicating neutral to slightly bullish momentum as it hovers just above zero. A clear upward cross above zero would confirm bullish strength. Relative Strength Index : The RSI is currently around 50-55, suggesting neutral momentum. It is not in overbought above 70 or oversold below 30 territory, leaving plenty of room for a move in either direction. Sentimental Overview Market sentiment is mixed and volatile. The technical bounce from support and the temporary political headwinds for the US Dollar are generating a short-term bullish feeling among some traders. However, the overall long-term view remains cautious or slightly bearish, as the dollars fundamental dominance is widely expected to return if US inflation stays high. Retail trader positioning data shows a relatively balanced mix of long and short positions, confirming the current indecisive market state. Trade Setup Point: The analysis suggests a range-bound trade setup zone until a key level is broken. Bullish Trade Setup: A break and sustained close above on the H4 chart could signal a move towards 1.1820, targeting the recent rally high. Stop-loss placement below the immediate support 1.1700 is advised. Bearish Trade Setup: A clear break and close below would confirm that the current upside momentum has failed. This could target a decline toward 1.1640. Stop-loss placement above 1.1780 is advised for risk management. Current Zone: This is a no-trade or consolidation zone. Waiting for a breakout above 1.1780 or below 1.1700 offers better risk-to-reward opportunities. Note: Successful Forex Trading requires a combination of Technical Indicators, Fundamental Data and Disciplined Risk Management.