FX.co ★ Arman-Shaban | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) reflects recent macroeconomic shifts in October 2025. The Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut in September and signals another potential reduction at the October 28-29 meeting amid a weakening job market. US inflation accelerated to 2.9 percent annually in August, supporting Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation. The U.S. dollar index hovers around 98, exerting downward pressure on cryptocurrency prices. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached a record $5.95 billion weekly, with BlackRocks IBIT dominating at $970 million in a single day.Geopolitical tensions and U.S. government shutdown risks have driven safe-haven demand, boosting sentiment amid supply shock from limited issuance. The 4-hour chart exhibits a defined market structure with prominent elements. Demand zones form at 105,000-106,000 and 102,000, where price found support during recent dips. Supply zones appear at 118,000-119,000 and 124,000, acting as resistance. Liquidity sweeps occurred at 119,000, where price rejected highs, and 105,000, where lows were tested. Downside liquidity pools remain unmitigated below 102,000 toward 100,000-98,000, while upside liquidity pools target above 124,000. Fair value gaps emerge between 110,000-111,000 from the recent drop, and order blocks include a bullish one at 105,000-106,000 and a bearish one at 118,000. The 50-period EMA provides dynamic support near 109,000.

Bullish scenarios activate if price sustains above 118,000 on a 4-hour close, targeting 124,000-125,000 initially, with extension to 130,000 if volume rises. Confirmation requires a retest of 115,000 as support and RSI above 50. Bearish paths trigger on rejection at 118,000 or breakdown below 109,000, aiming for 106,000-102,000 first, then 100,000-98,000 if momentum persists. Traders should place stops above 119,500 for shorts or below 105,000 for longs and monitor for increasing volume as a trend signal. Bitcoin currently positions between the 105,000 demand zone and 118,000 supply zone in a consolidation phase. Liquidity sweeps remain critical, as recent rejections at 119,000 highlight active order flow. Upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data and Federal Reserve minutes could drive volatility.1a5a9e Both buy and sell opportunities exist until a sustained breakout above 119,000 or below 105,000 confirms the next trend.