FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is currently showing a technically complex structure that suggests both short-term bullish corrections and medium-term bearish continuation. The lowest and most critical support lies at 1.3276, from which GBP/USD rebounded, forming a bullish capture signal on the M5 chart with defining levels at 1.3319 and 1.3345 — both of which serve as intraday supports. The pair is now consolidating above 1.3345, suggesting that buyers are attempting to regain short-term control. However, the resistance levels defined by the bearish capture signal on H4 at 1.3384 and 1.3458 remain dominant. As long as GBP/USD trades below 1.3458, upward momentum is likely to be limited and corrective in nature. The “5 points 2 targets” trading model on the daily timeframe also remains valid, setting the primary range between 1.3526 (upper boundary) and 1.3276 (lower boundary). Given that the pair has already reached the lower target, GBP/USD may now fluctuate between short-term supports on M5 and strong resistances on H4 before resuming its bearish direction. Once the bullish structure on M5 completes, the focus should shift to identifying sell signals near the resistance zone, with targets toward 1.3122 and possibly 1.3165 depending on the weekly movement.

From a broader technical perspective, GBP/USD is still under the influence of a weekly sell signal on the W1 chart, though this occurs alongside an upward divergence, demanding cautious interpretation. The key level of 1.3140 is vital — a break below it would invalidate the divergence and confirm the continuation of the bearish wave. Until that happens, any downward movement could still be part of a corrective structure. The current pullback looks corrective after a steep decline, taking shape as a potential three-wave (ABC) correction, with expectations for GBP/USD to revisit 1.3320, followed by a rise toward 1.3400, aligning with the descending trendline resistance. If sellers regain control near 1.3415, renewed downward momentum could drive the pair toward 1.3133 or even 1.3122, in line with the medium-term trend. The resistance at 1.3420 remains a strong barrier for the bulls, and a sustained close above it could trigger a brief rally toward 1.3525, though such a move would likely be short-lived. Overall, GBP/USD remains bearish in the broader trend, with current upward movement seen as a corrective retracement offering new opportunities to rejoin the dominant downtrend.