FX.co ★ veelamunda | USD/JPY

Here’s a current technical + fundamental + price-action view for USD/JPY — where the pair may head next, what to watch, and key risks. (As of today, Dec 5, 2025). ???? Macro / Fundamental Backdrop The weakness in Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s monetary policy versus a comparatively stronger Federal Reserve (Fed) — or at least expectations around their policy — continues to undermine the Japanese Yen versus the US Dollar. That structural yield-differential keeps USD/JPY supported. However, markets are now increasingly focusing on upcoming U.S. data (e.g. inflation, PCE) and the Fed’s path. Weak US data + growing speculation about near-term Fed easing could undercut the Dollar. At the same time, there’s some talk that recent Yen depreciation may be unsustainable — a “ticking time bomb” for Japan’s economy and balance-of-payments. That raises the risk of a sharp Yen rebound if market sentiment or policy expectations shift. Takeaway (Fundamental): The broad structural bias still favors USD over JPY — but downside risks for USD are mounting if global sentiment shifts, Fed eases, or Yen-recovery bets surge. ???? Technical & Price-Action Picture Looking at the recent charts: According to a recent summary, on the daily time frame the moving averages give a mixed/neutral to slightly bearish signal: some short-term MAs (e.g. MA5–MA20) are “Buy” while longer-term MAs (50, 100, 200) lean “Sell.” Other momentum/oscillator indicators: RSI is around mid-range (neutral), while Stochastic and related oscillators appear “overbought.” Some recent technical-analysis pieces point to a “triangle / consolidation” pattern. According to that, a short-term bounce up to ~ 155.55 is possible, but the overall bias remains bearish as long as price remains below certain EMAs. So technically, the pair is in a kind of neutral-to-slightly-bearish consolidation phase: neither strong bull trend, nor deep sell-off — waiting for direction. ???? Key Support & Resistance (Spot / Near-term) Here are the key levels to watch in coming days/weeks: Resistance ~ 155.50–156.00 Near-term upside cap. If price breaks convincingly above, could open path for move toward 157.50–158.00. Major resistance ~ 157.80–158.85 A breakout past this could re-activate the broader up-trend (with longer-term target ~ 160+). Support ~ 154.50–154.65 If price holds here, consolidation may continue or bounce upward. Support / pivot zone ~ 153.00–153.85 If broken, can deepen downward correction — possibly toward 151.00–150.00 (psychological / structural support). Deeper structural support ~ 150.00 or lower (~146.00) Would come into view if bearish momentum accelerates. ???? Scenarios: What Could Happen Next Bullish Case If price breaks and closes convincingly above ~ 156.00 — especially on strong volume and positive US data — bulls may push toward 157.50–158.00, and possibly challenge 158.80–160 (structural highs). That path could be reinforced if the Fed signals stability (or no rate cuts), Yen-weakness persists, or BOJ remains dovish. Bearish / Corrective Case If USD/JPY fails to hold 154.50–154.65 support — or breaks 153.00 — a deeper correction could ensue, maybe toward 151.00–150.00. A strong shift in US monetary expectations (e.g. dovish Fed), better Yen sentiment (carry-trade unwind / Japan policy change), or risk-off global mood could accelerate downside. Sideways / Consolidation Given the mixed technicals and macro uncertainty, it’s quite possible price consolidates between 154.50 and 156.00 for a while, forming a base before the next directional move. ✅ What to Watch — Key Catalysts Upcoming US inflation / PCE data + US labour/economic data (since that shapes Fed expectations). Any commentary / decision from BOJ signaling policy shifts. Risk sentiment global-wide (risk-on vs risk-off), which often affects Yen strongly via carry‐trade dynamics. Technical breakouts (above 156.00 or below 153.00). If you like — I can also draw (project) 3–6-month USD/JPY baseline, bullish, and bearish forecast paths (with approximate price ranges + probabilities) — that often helps in planning trades or hedges.