FX.co ★ amiron56 | EUR/USD

I am closely watching the Euro charts today. The price of the single currency is making a very steady move as it tests the resilience of its recent recovery. I can see that the market is finally finding a balance point after the volatility sparked by the hawkish Federal Reserve minutes earlier this week. Buyers and sellers are currently locked in a fierce battle near the 1.1770 mark. It seems like the EUR/USD pair is looking for a clear direction for the rest of February as we prepare for critical US inflation data. I am tracking every tick to find the best trading opportunity. I see the price sitting at 1.1770 as we speak. This is a very important moment for all currency traders. The current landscape for EUR/USD is defined by a massive shift in global interest rate expectations and a divergence between the ECBs "wait-and-see" approach and the Feds "higher for longer" narrative. After a period where the pair reached local highs near 1.1900 earlier this month, the market has undergone a healthy but noticeable correction. I have observed that while the ECB decided to keep its deposit rate at 2.00% for the fifth consecutive meeting on February 5, the US Dollar is finding renewed strength as markets price in only a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut by June. This creates a balanced yet fragile environment where today’s US Core PCE data—forecast to rise to 2.9%—could trigger a sharp move. My focus is on how the market handles the yearly open support while navigating the transition in global central bank leadership. I am primarily using the Daily (D1) chart to analyze the long-term structural trend of 2026. This timeframe is essential because it filters out the noise of daily swings and shows the true strength of the recent slide from the 1.1900 level. I also use the 4-Hour (H4) chart to identify short-term momentum shifts and more precise execution levels. By looking at the Daily chart, I can see the broad horizontal range that has governed prices throughout February. The H4 chart allows me to see the immediate rejection or acceptance of the 1.1800 handle as it happens. Using multiple timeframes gives me a 3D view of the market movement as we navigate this high-interest-rate environment. Current Market Price The price is currently trading at 1.1770 USD. This level is particularly significant because it sits right at the Yearly Open Support zone. I have noticed that this area has become a high-volume zone where many contracts are being exchanged after the latest Fed minutes showed a committee split on the urgency of cuts. If the price remains above 1.1767, I see a potential for a short-term rally toward 1.1850. If it slips back below, the path toward the 1.1680 support becomes much clearer. The current price action is showing that the bulls are trying to defend this critical territory despite recent sanctions by the ECB on major banks like J.P. Morgan, which has kept European financial sentiment cautious. Recent Highs and Lows I have marked the recent high of February at 1.1903 USD. This peak was formed earlier in the month when the market anticipated a more dovish Fed. Since that rejection, the market has undergone a steady decline. On the downside, the most significant recent low is 1.1770 USD, which we are testing right now. Looking back, I also see a major structural support near 1.1680, which represents the ultimate safety net for the bulls in the 2026 trading year. These levels define the boundaries of our current market volatility. Technical Indicator Values I am analyzing the technical data and I see the Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) at 41.3. This indicates that the market has a bearish tilt but is not yet oversold. It gives the bears more room to push the price before the market becomes overextended. The Moving Averages are also telling a clear story. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at 1.1812 USD. Since the price is trading below this line, I consider the short-term trend to be bearish. The MACD is showing a reading that is currently below the zero line. The MACD line is below the signal line on the H4 chart, confirming the downward momentum seen over the last 48 hours. However, I have noticed that the histogram is starting to flatten out near the current lows. This often signals that the selling pressure might be reaching a point of temporary exhaustion. I am waiting for a bullish crossover to confirm a move back toward 1.1830. Current Candle Pattern On the H4 chart, I can see a series of small, overlapping candles followed by a long-wicked rejection near 1.1800. This pattern shows that the market encountered significant resistance at the psychological handle. On the Daily chart, I am observing a potential "Yearly Open Support" test. This is generally considered a neutral-to-bullish phase if the daily close remains above 1.1767. Right now, the candles are tight, which tells me the market is waiting for the US Core PCE release at 13:30 GMT to decide the next move. Sentiment and Correlation I feel that the sentiment is "Cautiously Hawkish" for the USD side as of February 20. The fear of an early Fed rate cut has faded, replaced by concerns about sticky US inflation. I have also noted a strong positive correlation between EUR/USD and the US 10-year Treasury yields. When yields climb, the pair usually faces downward pressure. Furthermore, I am watching the DAX 40 very closely. While European indices have shown some stability, the uncertainty around the incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, and the potential for new trade tariffs is adding a layer of domestic US strength. The Context of the Move The recent move from 1.1903 to 1.1770 was not a random move. It happened because the Federal Reserve minutes revealed that some officials still see upside risks to inflation. I see this as a "reality check" for those expecting a quick easing cycle. The context of 2026 is one of economic divergence. With the ECB keeping rates at 2.00% while the US Fed maintains a higher target, the carry trade remains slightly in favor of the Dollar. We are now in a phase where the market is testing the resilience of the Eurozone against a persistent US Greenback. Upcoming Fundamental Economical News I am tracking several high-impact events for the coming hours. The most important is the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, which is expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase and 2.9% annually. I want to see if inflation remains sticky, which would strengthen the Dollar further. I am also monitoring the US GDP Revision and Flash PMI data. Any sign of a stronger-than-expected US economy will strengthen the Dollar and push the pair lower. Finally, I am watching the Eurozone sentiment, as the ECBs current "on hold" stance through 2026 provides a stable but unexciting backdrop for the Euro. Possible Support and Resistance Resistance 1: 1.1812 USD (20-day EMA and current psychological barrier). Resistance 2: 1.1856 USD (Key structural pivot and February 18 high). Support 1: 1.1767 USD (Immediate technical floor and Yearly Open support). Support 2: 1.1680 USD (Major structural base and 2026 yearly low). Trading Strategy Using Moving Average and MACD I have developed a strategy for the current market state at 1.1770. I will only enter a long position if the price closes above the 1.1812 resistance on the H4 chart. I also need to see the MACD histogram turn clearly positive. This combination ensures that I am trading with the momentum. If the price reaches 1.1800 and gets rejected with a bearish pin bar, I will consider a short trade targeting the 1.1710 level. This disciplined approach prevents me from getting caught in the current range-bound noise. Fibonacci Analysis for Entry and Exit I use Fibonacci retracements to find the hidden geometry of the market. I have drawn my tool from the February high of 1.1903 down to the current low of 1.1770. Entry Point: I am looking to buy at 1.1770 if the H4 session closes with a bullish engulfing candle and stays above 1.1767. Profit Target 1: 1.1830 USD (38.2% retracement) for a quick gain. Profit Target 2: 1.1860 USD (61.8% retracement) for a larger recovery trade. Stop Loss: 1.1730 USD. This level is below the yearly open support and provides a safe exit if the bearish trend accelerates. Proposed Entry and Exit Summary I am looking to buy EUR/USD at the current 1.1770 USD price if the support holds through the US session open. My stop loss will be placed at 1.1730 USD to protect my capital. My first profit target is 1.1830 USD, where I will close half of my position. My second target is 1.1860 USD, where I expect the market to face significant structural resistance. This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio for the current environment.