FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Timeframe: Based on the USD/JPY daily chart shown, the current price movement is showing a consolidation phase after previously experiencing quite sharp downward pressure from the peak area around 158.20–159.40. The medium-term trend structure remains bullish, as evidenced by the price remaining above the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line) and mostly remaining around the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line). However, in the short term, momentum remains neutral to slightly bearish as the price has not been able to form a significant higher high after the last correction. The sharp decline that occurred in late January to early February indicated strong profit-taking after a long upward phase since September. This correction brought the price down to near the 152.00–153.00 area, which coincided with the proximity of the 200-day moving average (MA). The market response in this area was quite positive, as evidenced by the emergence of several candles with long lower shadows and a gradual rebound. This indicates that this area serves as strong dynamic support in maintaining the medium-term bullish structure. Currently, the price is moving around the 155.00–155.50 area, which is a crucial balance zone and adjacent to the 100-day moving average (MA). The price's position around the 100-day moving average indicates that the market is seeking a new direction. If the price is able to maintain and consistently close daily above the 100-day moving average (MA), the potential for further upside towards the nearest resistance at 156.30–157.60 will be greater. A strong breakout above 157.60 could even open up room for further upside towards the previous peak area around 158.20 to 159.40.

Conversely, if selling pressure increases again and the price fails to hold above 154.70–155.00, the potential for further downside towards the next support at 152.20–153.00 should be monitored. A clear break below this area would signal a bearish structural shift, especially if the price also breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA). In this scenario, the next downside target could be the strong support area around 150.40, or even 149.00. From a price structure perspective, the movement over the past few weeks has formed a ranging pattern with a lower boundary around 152.00–153.00 and an upper boundary around 157.50. This pattern reflects a distribution or accumulation phase, depending on the direction of the subsequent breakout. The volume and strength of the candlesticks at the time of the breakout will be important factors in confirming the direction of the subsequent trend. Overall, USD/JPY maintains a medium-term bullish bias as long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the 152.00 support level remains intact. However, in the short term, the market is in a consolidation phase with a neutral trend. The 155.00 area is a key indicator of the next direction. A move above it opens the door to further upside, while failure to hold could trigger a deeper correction before the uptrend resumes. A prudent approach in such conditions is to wait for confirmation of a clear breakout or rejection at key support or resistance levels before taking a position.