FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I always start by admitting that if I am not trading USD/JPY profitably, I have to question whether I truly understand its rhythm or whether I am just forcing trades out of habit. I increasingly feel that reducing exposure is sometimes a strategic decision rather than a sign of weakness, especially with USD/JPY, which often punishes impatience. I notice that I used to trade this pair far more aggressively, but I now approach it with more caution, and I even consider cutting back further if my edge is not clearly visible. I prefer to begin my weekend preparation with the weekly chart of USD/JPY because I believe higher timeframes filter out noise and reveal the broader intent of the market. I see that the last two weekly candles closed bullish, and I acknowledge that this sequence suggests underlying demand, but I also remind myself that two bullish candles alone do not guarantee continuation. I question whether these bullish formations are true accumulation signals or simply part of a corrective rebound within a larger structure. I pay close attention to recent local highs because I understand that without a decisive break and consolidation above them, I cannot confidently prioritize further upside. I recognize that USD/JPY often reacts sharply around previous highs, and I know that false breakouts are common in this pair. I consider whether momentum is truly building or whether volatility is compressing before another expansion phase. I evaluate whether the market is preparing for a breakout scenario or forming a distribution range near resistance. I remind myself that my open weekend trade requires patience and discipline, and I accept that clarity may only come after the market confirms direction through structure rather than emotion.

I observe that USD/JPY spent nearly the entire previous week in consolidation, and I interpret this as a market preparing for its next directional move rather than losing momentum outright. I note that the pair managed to hold above 155.78, which I recognize as the 270-degree angle level marking three-quarters of the prior upward cycle from the 152.09 low, and I see this as a technical sign that buyers are still defending their territory. I understand that as long as price remains above 155.78 at the start of the week, I must respect the bullish structure and consider the possibility that buyers will attempt to complete the full upward cycle toward 157.03, the 360-degree projection. I realize that reaching 157.03 could represent a technically significant exhaustion point, and I anticipate that a reaction or even a corrective reversal to the downside could emerge from that area. I also acknowledge that if bullish momentum proves strong enough to break through 157.03 decisively, I would then shift my focus to the next resistance zones at 157.65 and 158.27, where I would again expect sellers to test the strength of the uptrend. I remain cautious because I know that consolidation phases often create false breakouts, and I prefer to see confirmation through sustained price acceptance rather than brief spikes. I consider the broader market sentiment and recognize that some analysts expect the Japanese yen to strengthen as a safe-haven currency at the weekly open, especially if risk sentiment deteriorates. I understand that for this bearish scenario to unfold convincingly, sellers must first reclaim control by pushing USD/JPY back below 155.78 and holding it there. I remind myself that this level now acts as a pivotal decision point, and I accept that my trading bias must remain flexible until the market clearly reveals whether buyers can maintain dominance or whether sellers are ready to initiate a deeper correction.