FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I am looking at USD/JPY on the H4 timeframe and I see a market that is technically bullish in the short term but structurally trapped in a broader sideways corridor between 158.25 and 152.53. I am noting that price is holding above the MA20 and MA50, and I see both moving averages pointing north, which tells me that momentum is still in favor of buyers for now. I am aware that the weekly close near resistance increases the probability of a push toward 158.25, and I am prepared for a possible liquidity sweep above that level before any meaningful reaction. I am also cautious because I recognize that this pair often produces sharp, illogical moves, especially when intervention expectations around the Bank of Japan resurface. I am not comfortable buying at current prices because I feel late to the move, and I am equally hesitant to sell into strength without confirmation. I am therefore waiting for either a clear breakout and consolidation above 158.25 to validate continuation toward higher targets like 161.95, or a rejection pattern that would justify positioning short with defined risk.

I am also stepping back to the weekly chart, and I see two consecutive bullish candles, which I interpret as underlying demand, but I do not see a decisive breakout beyond prior structural highs like 159.45. I am observing that the prior corrective phase failed to reach the deeper Fibonacci retracement levels near the 149–150 zone, which leaves unfinished business on the downside in my view. I am considering the possibility that what I am witnessing is a descending triangle formation, and I am watching the 152.11 low carefully because I believe a confirmed break below it could open the path toward 150.00. I am aware that geopolitical tension, including developments involving Iran, could inject volatility and distort technical setups at any moment. I am acknowledging that I am currently short and emotionally conflicted, and I am trying to balance patience with discipline. I am ultimately waiting for a clean structural signal, because I understand that without confirmation, any p osition here is more speculation than strategy.