FX.co ★ absh kaat | GBP/USD

I am closely watching the GBP/USD market and I see that the 1.3434 level remains intact, which I interpret as a meaningful pivot that still supports the idea that the current corrective phase could be ending, but I remain cautious because corrective structures can extend beyond classical boundaries. I am applying a multi-timeframe approach and I use Elliott Wave Theory (EWA) to structure my analysis, and I believe the wave count suggests that the corrective waves have taken longer and more complex shapes than simple zigzags, which in my view increases the probability that the larger downtrend hasn’t yet completed its corrective sequence. I am also monitoring the MACD histogram across key timeframes, and I observe that bearish momentum still has not completely faded in my assessment, which tells me that the trend bias remains weighted toward downside continuation more than a fresh bullish reversal. I am looking at the relative positions of my smoothed 55, 89, and 144 EMAs, and I notice that price action continues to trade beneath these moving averages on the higher timeframes, which I interpret as confirmation that sellers still retain control in the broader context rather than indicating a clean break toward the upside. I am accounting for how the probabilities of specific wave patterns — such as extended impulsive legs in the direction of the larger trend — are stacking in favor of continuation rather than reversal, and I consider this from both a probabilistic and structural standpoint before adjusting my bias. I am patient with my analysis and I understand that while the potential for a corrective ending still exists as long as 1.3434 holds, I lean toward a continuation of the downtrend because my combined technical tools — EWA structure, MACD histogram bias, and EMA alignment — continue to favor bearish dominance, and I will wait for additional confirmation through lower highs and sustained downside momentum before fully embracing any shift in direction.

I am observing that GBP/USD recently tested the 1.3573 resistance level and I see that the market responded with a noticeable bearish reaction, which tells me that sellers are still defending higher prices aggressively. I noticed that after the rejection, the pair declined toward the 1.3432 support level, and I interpret this move as a technical correction rather than a full trend reversal at this stage. I recognize that the downside momentum slowed near support, and I saw how buyers stepped in before a deeper breakdown could occur, which suggests to me that demand remains active below 1.3450. I observed that the price recovered and paused around 1.3482 into the weekend close, and I consider this consolidation as a decision zone where both bulls and bears are reassessing their positions. I believe that if buyers maintain control after the market opens, I could see a renewed push toward 1.3573, and I would interpret a clean break above that resistance as confirmation of a developing uptrend. I also understand that false breakouts are common in this environment, so I would wait for strong bullish candles and sustained acceptance above resistance before committing to a long bias. I acknowledge that a bearish scenario remains valid, and I would not ignore the possibility of a renewed sell-off toward the 1.3340 support level if the pair fails to build upward momentum. I believe that Monday’s price action will be critical, and I prefer to remain patient while I evaluate volatility, volume behavior, and the reaction to intraday support and resistance levels before making any decisive move.