FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CHF

I am currently observing mixed but technically structured setups on both GBP/USD and USD/CHF, and I am aligning my strategy with moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key intraday zones. I am seeing on GBP/USD that the 13–50 EMA structure is pointing upward, which I interpret as short-term bullish momentum, especially on the M15 chart where I notice consistent higher intraday movement. I am watching the 0.799 resistance level as the first serious upside test if bullish pressure continues, and I believe that a clean approach to this level will confirm sustained buyer interest. I am also considering the 0.784–0.785 area as a buyer zone, and I see this region as a more favorable long-entry opportunity if the price pulls back before continuing higher. I am prepared to reassess my bullish bias if my moving averages produce a reversal signal, because I recognize that a drop below 0.774 would invalidate the upward structure. I am also aware that a consolidation below 0.788 would activate a more relevant sell scenario, and I would only consider short exposure if the price confirms weakness beneath that threshold.

I am holding a small short position on USD/CHF, and I am satisfied with its current performance while remaining cautious about adding exposure. I am analyzing the H4 chart and recognizing that the pair formed resistance near 0.7877–0.7878 around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and I believe that level represented exhaustion for buyers. I am targeting the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.7818, which has already been tested, and I am now anticipating a continuation toward the 100% extension near 0.7594 as my primary bearish objective. I am monitoring upcoming U.S. ADP data because I understand that weak dollar figures could accelerate downside momentum. I am also considering a corrective pullback toward 0.7798 or even 0.7770 before any reliable long setup develops, although I personally believe the corrective phase is not yet complete. I am evaluating the possibility of a temporary upward reaction from 0.7772, but I am not fully convinced that a sustained bullish reversal is ready without deeper structural confirmation.