FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | EUR/USD

EUR/USD Timeframe H4: EUR/USD chart on the H4 timeframe shows a significant structural change in price after previously experiencing strong bearish pressure. In the initial phase, the price consistently moved below the 100-day moving average (blue line) and 200-day moving average (red line), reflecting the dominance of a medium-term downtrend. The 100-day moving average (MA) positioning below the 200-day moving average (MA) further reinforced this bearish bias, with the price forming a pattern of consistently lower highs and lower lows. The sharp decline that occurred from late February to mid-March brought the price to a strong support area around 1.1400 to 1.1450. This area serves as a fairly solid demand zone, as evidenced by the significant rebound reaction after the price touched that level. From this point, selling pressure began to weaken, followed by a consolidation phase that lasted for some time before the price finally began to form a new upward structure. The change in momentum was confirmed when the price successfully broke through the 100-day moving average from below to above. This breakthrough was an early signal that bullish pressure was re-emerging in the market. Over time, the price continued to rise and approached the 200-day moving average (MA), which currently acts as dynamic resistance. The price's interaction with the 200-day moving average (MA) is crucial, as this line often marks the boundary between bearish and bullish trends in the medium term.

Currently, the price appears to have successfully broken through the horizontal resistance area around 1.1630 to 1.1650, which had previously held back gains. This breakout indicates increasing buyer strength, pushing the price upward toward the next resistance area around 1.1720 to 1.1740. This area is crucial because it served as a supply point that triggered the price decline in the previous phase. Structurally, the formation of higher lows and higher highs in the last few sessions indicates that the short-term trend has reversed to bullish. Furthermore, the 100-day moving average (MA) has begun to curve upward, indicating a shift in more positive momentum. However, the 200-day moving average (MA) remains above or close to the current price, so pressure from dynamic resistance remains quite relevant. If the price can hold above the 1.1630 area as new support and successfully breaks through the resistance around 1.1740, the opportunity for continued gains towards the 1.1800 to 1.1840 area will increase. This area represents stronger resistance and could potentially become the next target in a bullish scenario. Conversely, if the price fails to maintain its position above 1.1630 and falls back below the 100-day moving average (MA), this could indicate that the previous breakout was a false breakout. Under such conditions, the price has the potential to move back down towards the support area around 1.1500 to 1.1480, even opening the opportunity to retest the demand zone around 1.1400. Overall, EUR/USD is currently in a transition phase from bearish to bullish, with initial confirmation seen through a breakout of the 100-day moving average (MA) and key horizontal resistance. However, the sustainability of the uptrend still depends heavily on the price's ability to stay above key levels and consistently break through the 200-day moving average (MA) and nearby resistance.