FX.co ★ bradtke.owen | CL/Crude Oil

#CL Timeframe Daily

Based on the Crude Oil (#CL) Daily timeframe chart, current conditions still show that the primary trend is in a bearish phase, although in the last few days there have been signs of a recovery attempt after price managed to bounce from its recent lows. The selling pressure that has dominated since mid-May remains the main factor shaping the price direction. This is reflected in the price still trading below the 100-period Moving Average (MA) and the 200-period Moving Average (MA), as well as the downward slope of both moving averages. As long as price has not been able to move steadily back above these two indicators, the probability that the current rise is only a technical rebound remains relatively high. Looking at the price structure, #CL previously experienced a very strong rally up to the 109.59 area and even approached 119.30. However, after failing to maintain bullish momentum, selling pressure emerged aggressively and formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, which are the main characteristics of a bearish trend. The decline was quite sharp, dragging price down to around 69.80 before a buying response finally appeared, pushing price back up to the 71.50 area. Even so, this rise has not been able to change the trend structure because price is still moving below the dynamic resistance area formed by the 100 MA and 200 MA. From the moving average perspective, the blue 100 MA is still above price and continues to slope downward. This position indicates that medium-term selling pressure is still quite dominant. The 100 MA now acts as the first dynamic resistance that must be broken if price wants to build a stronger recovery momentum. As long as price remains below this indicator, every rally still has the potential to face new selling from market participants. Meanwhile, the red 200 MA is also still above price, although its slope is flatter compared to the 100 MA. This condition indicates that the long-term bearish trend is still in effect, but the pace of the decline is starting to slow. If price is later able to break above the 100 MA and then move above the 200 MA, that would be an early signal of a trend change toward a more bullish phase. Based on the horizontal support and resistance lines on the chart, the 71.51 area is the nearest resistance currently being tested by price. This level previously acted as support which was then broken to the downside, so it has now turned into resistance. A valid breakout above this level would open the door for price to continue strengthening toward the next resistance around 87.43. This area has significant technical importance because it is close to a previous consolidation zone and is also not far from the position of the 100 MA. If buying momentum can push price through 87.43, the upside potential will open further toward the next resistance at 97.11, and it could even test the 109.59 area as a major resistance. On the downside, the first support is in the 66.89 area, which has been the bounce point for price in recent weeks. As long as price can hold above this level, the recovery potential remains intact. However, if selling pressure increases again and breaks this support, price could extend its decline toward 61.07, which is the next key support. Losing that area would further strengthen bearish dominance and open the way for a deeper drop toward 55.08, which is the major support on the daily timeframe. Price action over the last few days shows a change in character compared to the previous decline phase. After forming a low around the support area, several bullish candles appeared that gradually pushed price higher. This indicates that buying interest has started to return at lower price levels. However, the relatively small size of the bullish candles and the absence of a breakout above the 71.51 resistance show that buyers still need additional confirmation to fully take control of the market. Therefore, that resistance area becomes a very important level to determine whether this rebound can develop into a trend reversal or is merely a correction within the broader bearish trend. Looking at the overall technical structure, the market is still in a transition phase. On one hand, bearish pressure still dominates because price is below the 100 MA and 200 MA. On the other hand, the bounce from the support area shows that selling pressure is starting to ease and buyers are trying to build new momentum. Conditions like this are usually followed by a consolidation period before the market decides on its next direction. Therefore, confirmation from a resistance breakout or a support break will be a crucial determining factor. Overall, the technical outlook for #CL on the Daily timeframe remains biased to the bearish side as long as price continues to trade below the 100 MA and 200 MA. The current rise is better viewed as a technical rebound that still requires further confirmation. If price can break above the 71.51 resistance and move consistently above the 100 MA, the recovery potential toward 87.43 up to 97.11 will increase. Conversely, if price once again fails to break that resistance and selling pressure regains control, a decline toward the 66.89 support and even 61.07 remains a scenario that must be watched. Thus, the main focus of market participants in the next few sessions will be on price reaction around the 71.51 area, as that level could be the key determinant of the next trend direction.