FX.co ★ _____ | NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Bullish Near 0.5964: Buyers Challenge 0.6000 After Strong Recovery NZD/USD is trading around 0.59642 on the daily OANDA chart, holding a clearly improved bullish structure after rebounding from the 0.5650–0.5700 region. Price has advanced through successive resistance areas and is now approaching the psychologically important 0.6000 level. The recent sequence of higher highs and higher lows favors buyers, but the pair is now testing a major prior swing area where supply could emerge. The key question is whether price can establish acceptance above 0.6000 or whether this rally stalls just below resistance. The fundamental backdrop is supportive but carries an important event risk. The RBNZ currently has its Official Cash Rate at 2.50%, while New Zealand inflation is running at 4.1% year over year. The central bank's next Monetary Policy Statement is scheduled for September 2, making expectations around future policy an important near-term driver for the Kiwi. (

) On the U.S. side, markets are focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, with investors looking for clues about future policy. Reuters reported on August 28 that the New Zealand and Australian dollars were strengthening modestly as markets weighed rate-hike expectations, while the dollar remained near a one-week high. (

) The daily structure has undergone a significant recovery. NZD/USD fell from above 0.6000 early in the year toward approximately 0.5700 by late June, where sellers finally lost momentum. From that base, price began forming higher lows and progressively higher highs. The recovery accelerated through 0.5800, then 0.5900, and the latest advance has carried the pair to 0.5960–0.5980. This sequence indicates that buyers are currently controlling the medium-term price structure, although the pair has yet to prove that the previous 0.6000 barrier has been permanently overcome. The most important resistance is 0.6000, with the February swing highs around 0.6050–0.6100 representing the next major upside reference if a breakout develops. On the downside, 0.5900 is the first meaningful support because it sits within the latest bullish leg. Below that, the 0.5800–0.5850 region becomes important, while the June base around 0.5700 remains the major structural demand area. The chart does not display RSI, MACD or volume, so the bullish assessment is based on price structure and visible swing levels rather than unshown indicators. The preferred bullish scenario is a daily close above 0.6000, followed by a successful retest of that level as support. Such behavior would confirm that buyers have absorbed the supply around the psychological barrier and could open the way toward 0.6050–0.6100. A more conservative entry would therefore come after confirmation rather than buying directly at 0.59642. If the breakout occurs, invalidation would be a sustained return below approximately 0.5900. A setup around 0.6000 with risk defined below 0.5900 and a first target near 0.6100 would offer roughly 1:1, so a deeper retest or tighter technical invalidation would be preferable for a stronger risk/reward profile. The alternative scenario is rejection from 0.6000 followed by a daily break below 0.5900. That would indicate that the recent rally has encountered meaningful supply and could send the pair back toward 0.5800–0.5850. A failure of that zone would weaken the broader recovery and bring the 0.5700 base back into focus. The September 2 RBNZ decision could become an important catalyst for either scenario. Overall, NZD/USD has a constructive daily structure, but 0.6000 is the decisive technical barrier. A confirmed breakout and retest would strengthen the bullish continuation case toward 0.6050–0.6100, while rejection followed by a break below 0.5900 would favor a deeper correction. With price currently just below major resistance, waiting for confirmation offers a cleaner risk profile than chasing the rally.