FX.co ★ sudheerkumar | XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD — M30 Pullback Toward Demand Before Recovery

Macro News Gold is trading under pressure at the start of the week as the U.S. dollar remains near an 18-month high, while markets wait for the September CPI report on Wednesday and PPI/Retail Sales on Thursday. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening and keep Treasury yields elevated, creating downside pressure for Gold. Current pricing implies roughly 18% probability of an October Fed hike and 85% by December. U.S. bond markets are also closed today for Columbus Day, which may keep early-week liquidity thinner. Technical Analysis On M30, Gold has entered a corrective phase after rejecting the 4,205–4,215 area and forming a bearish CHOCH around the 4,185 region. Price is currently around 4,177, sitting just above the rising trendline and the first demand area. The structure suggests sellers may remain active while price stays below the 4,190–4,200 resistance zone. The key point is that the broader intraday structure remains supported by the rising trendline, so the current move should be treated as a pullback rather than an immediate full bearish reversal. Key Zones 4,192–4,200 — Main resistance / Fibonacci zone 4,163–4,170 — First demand + trendline support 4,141–4,148 — Major demand zone 4,105 — Structural support / deeper invalidation area Main Trading Scenario Sell Priority: 4,192–4,200 rejection If Gold retraces into 4,192–4,200 and shows clear rejection, the preferred path is a continuation lower toward 4,163–4,170. A clean break below this first demand could extend the correction toward 4,141–4,148, where buyers may attempt to re-enter. From the lower demand zone, a bullish reaction could reopen the path back toward 4,160–4,180. Macro View The current setup favors patience rather than chasing price at 4,177. The key battle is between the 4,192–4,200 resistance and 4,163–4,170 demand. As CPI approaches, volatility can expand quickly, so confirmation around these zones remains essential. Main idea: sell the rejection, watch demand for the reaction.