FX.co ★ Helsinki | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin is heading toward its fourth consecutive weekly decline, down more than 3% and trading near $77,335 after touching $76,500 in early Asian hours, and the sequence of events that produced this slide matters more than the number itself. Two blows landed almost simultaneously, and they reinforced each other in the worst possible way. The first was macroeconomic: the Federal Reserve's hawkish posture following its October meeting kept the pressure on risk assets, with tightening expectations refusing to fade even as the dollar softened elsewhere. The second was structural, and considerably more alarming. Binance, the largest centralized exchange, disclosed a security breach with an estimated total impact of roughly $6.3 billion. The company said it has worked with blockchain partners to freeze affected assets, with $3 billion already secured on-chain, and confirmed that losses will be covered through the Secure Asset Fund for Users and company funds while insisting user funds remain safe. Preliminary findings point to a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop that gave an attacker access to a service container and the ability to initiate unauthorized withdrawals. The market's reaction was immediate and violent. CoinGlass data shows 237,149 traders liquidated in 24 hours, with total liquidations hitting $1.53 billion and the single largest print, $11.09 million, occurring on the BTCUSDT pair. Forced closures fed directly into the downside, turning an orderly pullback into something closer to a cascade. What makes this week particularly damaging is the psychological damage. October is closing in negative territory at roughly -5.83%, which dismantles the "Uptober" narrative entirely. Historical data offers an uncomfortable pattern: in three of the last five instances where BTC finished October lower, November delivered double-digit losses. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, told FXStreet that an escalation in the Middle East could tighten global oil supplies, and that such an energy shock might intensify Fed tightening concerns, constraining crypto liquidity and limiting any sustained rally. He expects Bitcoin to keep oscillating between $70,000 and $80,000, noting there are no clear signs of a sustainable uptrend resumption, and that any rebound is likely to be short-lived as investors take profits quickly. Yet one counterweight persists: spot Bitcoin ETFs remain on course for a second consecutive week of net inflows, reaching $440.74 million as of Thursday. Institutional money is still arriving while retail leverage is being destroyed, a divergence that argues for consolidation rather than capitulation.

The moving average structure here is unambiguous, and it explains why every bounce has failed. Bitcoin is trading near $77,335, and all four tracked averages sit above the market. There is no dynamic support beneath price at all; not a single moving average is positioned to catch a decline. Start with the nearest barrier, since proximity defines the immediate problem. The H1 50-period SMA rests at $78,450, roughly $1,115 overhead. That is the first gate, close enough that a relief bounce could reach it without any genuine conviction behind the move, and failing there would confirm the rebound as cosmetic. Above it, the H4 50-period SMA at $80,096 and the H1 200-period SMA at $80,120 converge within $24 of each other. That convergence matters: when two timeframes settle on effectively the same number, the market stops treating them as separate hurdles and defends the zone as a single reinforced band. The $80,096–$80,120 range is the decisive barrier; reclaim it, and the structure begins to repair; stay beneath it, and the downtrend remains entirely intact. Finally, the H4 200-period SMA at $82,480 caps everything and would represent a full recovery rather than a bounce. On the downside, the first shelf sits at $76,500, the recent low and the level that must hold to prevent another leg lower. Beneath it, $75,000 is a psychologically significant round number likely to draw buyers, followed by $73,500, with $72,000 sitting deeper as a major demand area. On the upside, resistance begins at $78,450, aligning with the H1 50-period SMA, then $79,000, followed by the $80,096–$80,120 convergence, with $81,500 and $82,480 beyond. If Bitcoin defends $76,500 and grinds through $78,450, a test of the $80,096–$80,120 band becomes the immediate objective, and a daily close above it would be the first honest evidence the liquidation-driven selling has exhausted itself, opening $81,500 and potentially $82,480. If $76,500 gives way under sustained pressure, expect a slide toward $75,000 and then $73,500, which would leave every average firmly overhead.