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China’s DeepSeek AI model challenges US firms, impacts Anthropic’s market position
China’s DeepSeek released a new flagship AI model, intensifying competition with US firms. Anthropic’s odds of having the third-best AI model by April 30 dropped to ? YES. Market reaction...
Delaware Senate passes Payment Stablecoins Act, moves to House
Delaware’s Senate passed the Delaware Payment Stablecoins Act 20-1, sending the bill to the House. The legislation mirrors the federal GENIUS Act framework. On Polymarket, stablecoins depegging before December...
Bitcoin exchange reserves hit 5-year low as BlackRock absorbs 9x daily output
Bitcoin exchange reserves hit 2.3 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018, while BlackRock’s IBIT absorbs roughly 2,100 BTC per day against daily mining output of just...
USDT delisted from European exchanges as MiCA takes effect
USDT has been delisted from major European exchanges following the full implementation of MiCA, Europe’s stablecoin regulation. The market for USDC depeg by December 31 sits at 2.9% YES. With...
$344M USDT on Tron linked to Iran frozen, adding financial pressure
$344 million worth of USDT on the Tron network, allegedly tied to the Iranian regime, has been frozen. Odds for Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 have dipped...
Ukrainian logistical issues may lead to Russian advance on Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi
Ukrainian logistical setbacks in the Kupiansk sector have raised the likelihood of Russian forces entering Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi. The odds for Russian entry by April 30 are now at 92.5%...
Tether freezes $344M in USDT tied to Iran amid pressure campaign
Tether, working with OFAC, froze $344 million in USDT tied to Iran on April 23. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sit at 14%...