FX.co ★ US Inflation Expectations Lowest in 6 Months

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US fell to 3.1% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December and marking the lowest level in six months. Consumers anticipate slower price increases for gas (down 1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (down 0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (down 0.9 percentage point to 6.8%), and home prices (down 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, the lowest reading since July 2023). In contrast, median one-year-ahead price expectations for food remained unchanged at 5.7%, while expected price growth for college education rose by 0.7 percentage point to 9%. Longer-term inflation expectations were stable at 3% for both the three-year and five-year horizons. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7%, and the expected probability of higher unemployment edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%.