FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I observe that the GOLD trading week closed with a modest decline, which immediately draws my attention to the changing market dynamics after the strong upward movement seen earlier. I note that despite yesterday’s growth, price eventually fell back to the 4257.16 area, and I interpret this move as an early technical signal that a broader trend reversal may already be underway. I believe this reversal opens the door for a deeper decline, with my initial downside focus resting near the 4100.00 level, while I more realistically keep the psychologically important 4000.00 zone in mind as a potential extended target. I also pay close attention to silver, as I see it beginning to move in the same direction as gold, although I remain uncertain whether silver is simply catching up to gold’s move or whether it was previously lagging and is now adjusting. I understand that the market open on Monday will be crucial, and I expect that a decline combined with liquidity capture near the 4246.94 level could act as a trigger for a fresh wave of selling pressure. I remain cautious, however, because I know that gold is capable of unexpected behavior, and I never rule out alternative outcomes without confirmation. I emphasize that monitoring the dollar will be critical, as I recognize that quantitative tightening is actively underway, and I believe this process can provide additional support to the US dollar. I reason that a stronger dollar would naturally add pressure to gold prices and reinforce the bearish scenario I am currently tracking. I feel that the trend reversal has largely been resolved from a structural standpoint, and now my main task is to wait for clear confirmation through price action. I continue to doubt any meaningful recovery in gold, as I clearly see the double top formation still present on the chart and easily visible without complex indicators. I conclude that the market structure appears transparent, yet I still question whether there is any real justification for initiating long positions in gold under current conditions.

I view growth as the clearly defined primary plan and positioning framework, yet I also recognize that its realization can unfold through several distinct technical scenarios that traders must be prepared for. I consider the first option, marked as the blue scenario, to be the most straightforward, where price continues to rise directly from the current level without meaningful hesitation. I find this scenario logically grounded because I note that price is trading above the channel’s midline, which has consistently acted as a dynamic support and prevented deeper declines in the past. I believe this positioning above the midline reflects sustained buyer control and suggests that bullish momentum remains structurally intact. I also see the second option as closely related to the first, although I acknowledge that it introduces the possibility of a modest corrective pullback before the uptrend resumes. I interpret this potential dip as a healthy technical reset rather than a trend reversal, especially since I observe how repeatedly the midline has proven its importance over a prolonged period. I emphasize that a retest of this midline could attract fresh buying interest and reinforce confidence among trend-following participants. I remain aware, however, that markets rarely move in a single direction without testing patience, which is why I keep the third option in mind despite it being less favorable for bullish expectations. I define this third scenario as a deeper corrective move toward the broad and well-established support zone between 4219.72 and 4186.22. I acknowledge that such a pullback could temporarily challenge bullish sentiment, yet I also see it as a potential accumulation area if buyers successfully defend this zone. I stress that even within this more conservative scenario, the broader bullish structure would remain valid as long as price holds above key long-term supports. I ultimately keep my focus on the upside objective, as I clearly identify the 4400.00 level as the primary target that aligns with all three scenarios once corrective phases are completed. I conclude that flexibility, patience, and respect for these outlined paths are essential for navigating the market effectively while maintaining a growth-oriented bias.