FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I believe the USD/JPY currency pair continues to maintain a confident upward formation on the hourly timeframe, and I see that buyers are still controlling the market despite minor corrective movements near resistance. I noticed that by the close of trading, the quotes managed to settle close to the important resistance zone around 158.84, which tells me that bullish pressure remains active and that market participants are still willing to buy at elevated prices. I also observed that the latest hourly candle only showed a shallow pullback rather than a strong bearish reversal, and I interpret this as a sign that sellers currently lack the strength to initiate a large downward correction. I still think there is room for a temporary decline toward the 157.99 support area if the market forms a clear bearish engulfing pattern, because I understand that even strong trends require periodic corrections to release overbought pressure. I would consider such a pullback to be technical rather than structural, since I believe the overall bullish trend remains intact on the hourly chart. I also expect that after touching the 157.99 support zone, the pair could attract renewed buying interest and resume growth toward levels above the psychological 159.00 mark. I continue monitoring the indicators displayed below the chart, and I see that they are currently showing synchronized bullish signals accompanied by increasing trading volumes, which usually confirms trend continuation. I believe rising volume during upward movement reflects sustained institutional participation and continued confidence from buyers. I therefore think that long positions on pullbacks remain the most reasonable strategy under current market conditions, especially while the pair continues holding above key intraday supports. I do not currently see convincing technical signals for aggressive short positions because I believe bearish momentum remains weak and unconfirmed. I also think that unless sellers manage to produce a strong reversal structure with increased bearish volume, the market will likely continue favoring further upside movement in the near term.

I am still not considering buying the USD/JPY pair at these current price levels because I believe the market is trading in an overheated zone after such an aggressive and prolonged rally. I did attempt to sell the pair before the 158.00 area, but my position was eventually closed by stop-loss orders, which is a completely normal part of trading during strong bullish momentum. I still believe the market may continue climbing higher because the pair keeps steadily updating local highs and maintaining strong pressure toward further upside movement. I also see that buyers remain firmly in control for now, as every meaningful correction continues to attract renewed demand from the market. I do not currently have any clear short-term targets for either buying or selling because price action has become extremely stretched and less predictable at these elevated levels. I also continue paying close attention to the Japanese yen itself because I believe the currency remains fundamentally weak against the US dollar. I think only repeated verbal and direct interventions from the Japanese authorities are preventing the yen from weakening much more aggressively across the market. I also believe the strength of the US dollar remains one of the key supporting factors behind this ongoing rise in USD/JPY. I understand that future dollar performance will play a major role in determining whether this rally can continue without a deeper correction. I am therefore avoiding impulsive entries at these prices because I prefer waiting for a more attractive technical structure before considering any new trades. I still think the pair may eventually climb above the 160.05 resistance zone, and I would become much more interested in searching for potential selling opportunities if the market reaches that area. I believe that level could attract stronger reactions from institutional traders and possibly increase the risk of another intervention-driven pullback from Japanese authorities.