FX.co ★ Crude | EUR/USD

The "1.1685 Gateway": EUR/USD Wave Count Signals Inception of New Impulsive Sequence as Truncated Wave C Sets Multi-Month Base The EUR/USD currency pair is unfolding a crucial Elliott Wave structural transition, confirming the completion of a multi-month corrective sequence and initiating a primary bullish impulse cycle. The broader upward macro structure that commenced in January of last year remains fully intact and unviolated. Market structure indicates that the preceding A-B-C corrective structure has concluded, culminating in a classic truncated wave 5 within wave C. In live financial markets, textbook wave patterns frequently undergo structural compressions; bear liquidity pools were insufficient to force spot prices down to the 1.1300 projection zone. Consequently, July 28 marks the definitive structural pivot and origin for a fresh multi-month bullish wave sequence. Fundamental drivers are providing tailwinds for Euro buyers. Strong Eurozone PMI prints—led by Germany’s Manufacturing PMI surging to 54.1 alongside robust EU Manufacturing (52.8) and Services (51.7) data—demonstrate clear economic resilience across the bloc. Conversely, the U.S. Dollar continues to face structural headwinds. The U.S. Treasury’s decision to effectively execute a QE-style balance sheet expansion by doubling its long-dated bond buyback program has injected substantial liquidity into global capital markets, weakening Greenback demand. As market participants adjust to lower U.S. yield expectations and expanding Treasury fiscal burdens, capital is steadily rotating into Euro-denominated assets. From an Elliott Wave perspective, EUR/USD is at the initial stage of a major wave sequence targeting macro expansion toward the 1.2500 structural resistance target. Technical Trend Structure: The 1.1377 "Demand Floor" and the 1.2500 "Macro Citadel" The EUR/USD daily and 4-hour market geometry reflects an emerging 5-wave impulse structure building momentum above dynamic technical support lines. The 1.2500 "Macro Citadel": The primary macro wave objective for EUR/USD bulls resides at 1.2500 (Impulsive Wave 5 / Long-Term Macro Extension Target). A sustained breakout above intermediate barriers at 1.1850 and 1.2000 accelerates upside momentum toward this key supply boundary. The 1.1685 "Pivot Node": The immediate structural hurdle is the 1.1685 horizontal resistance pivot. Achieving sustained daily candle acceptance above this level confirms lower-timeframe Wave 1/Wave 3 expansion. The 1.1377 "Support Floor": On the downside, primary baseline support is established at 1.1377 (July 28 Structural Pivot Low). A structural close below this floor invalidates the truncated wave 5 count, opening secondary risk down toward the 1.1300 structural demand zone. Strategic Trading: Decision Nodes and Tactical Scenarios Navigating current EUR/USD wave developments requires monitoring confirmed acceptance around key technical boundaries. Signal Type Entry Trigger Primary Target (TP) Protective Stop (SL) Tactical Rationale Bullish Impulse Daily Close > 1.1685 1.2000 / 1.2500 1.1460 Trend continuation play on truncated Wave C completion and Treasury liquidity expansion. Bearish Invalidation H4 Close < 1.1377 1.1300 / 1.1250 1.1520 Breakdown play if wave count invalidates, triggering an extended 5-wave corrective cycle. Key Tactical Milestones: Immediate Resistance: The 1.1685 – 1.1850 range. Clearing this region confirms buyer dominance and opens the path toward macro wave target zones. Critical Support: The 1.1460 – 1.1377 region. Maintaining price action above this dynamic support cluster preserves the short-term bullish wave count. In summary, EUR/USD is coiling constructively around 1.1685. With the Elliott Wave structure favoring an impulsive bullish advance and macro fundamentals weighing on the U.S. Dollar, the technical configuration points toward an expansion phase targeting 1.2500, provided the 1.1377 baseline demand floor remains defended.