FX.co ★ Der | CL/Crude Oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark for US crude oil, traded near $88.60 a barrel in early Asian trade, hit by increasing selling pressure, mainly due to rising Middle East exports and increasing supplies from coordinated strategic reserves. Under strong pressure from US President Trump, the G7 formally agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from its emergency reserves, while pledging to avoid future restrictions on energy exports. This strategic support coincided with data showing a recovery in crude oil exports from the Middle East to levels higher than pre-war levels in the last week of September. To increase prices for refined products, President Trump on Monday evening signed an executive order easing restrictions on duty-free red diesel, temporarily excluding non-road vehicle diesel from regulations, in an effort to lower fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. Analysts note that although these coordinated actions have succeeded in alleviating current supply concerns, potential structural risks remain. Tim Waterler, senior analyst at KCM Trade, notes that although G7 inventory cuts and a rebound in Saudi exports have capped oil prices, the broader threat of physical damage to the Gulf region's energy infrastructure has not been completely eliminated. Moreover, Rabobank energy analysts warn that the US-Iran conflict is approaching a new dangerous escalation phase, reminding investors that reliance on fragile transportation systems and easily attacked export terminals could quickly destabilize the market and reignite its volatility. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, with the Houthis in Yemen claiming responsibility for multiple drone and missile attacks on Saudi airports and oil and military facilities, may mitigate the sharp decline in oil prices. Market participants are currently closely monitoring the upcoming inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). A larger-than-expected decline in inventories would indicate strong underlying demand and could push oil prices higher; On the other hand, increasing inventories would exacerbate the prevailing pessimism. Technically, the daily chart shows that WTI prices are in a consolidation phase, with a short-term bias towards neutrality or bearishness. Prices are hovering above the lower band of the Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average, but are limited by the resistance of the middle band of the Bollinger Band. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 46 and trending downward, indicating a noticeable weakness in the upside momentum. Upside resistance is located around the middle band of the Bollinger Band indicator at $93.35, while upper bound resistance is located around $101.10. On the downside, initial support is located around $88.35, followed by the lower Bollinger band at $85.58 and the 100-day moving average around $84.35. A break of these key support levels could lead to a long-term pullback.