FX.co ★ Fixy | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, falling to its lowest level in nearly two months after a period of consolidation. The bears are waiting for a breach of the $4100 level. Despite declining short-term interest rate hike expectations, and recent US macroeconomic data showing lower inflation and slight weakness in the labor market, the US dollar maintained its strong upward momentum. The continued strength of the dollar continues to put significant pressure on non-income-generating precious metal assets. Moreover, lower oil prices, influenced by abundant Middle Eastern exports and the G7-coordinated release of emergency reserves, have helped significantly ease short-term inflation fears, curbing demand for safe havens. However, broader monetary policy expectations continue to suggest that borrowing costs will tighten further in the coming quarters. The macroeconomic outlook remains complex, with major forecasting agencies interpreting labor market indicators differently. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that fluctuations in employment numbers do not affect the strength of the employment structure. Therefore, market prices continue to reflect increasing expectations of tight liquidity, while ongoing geopolitical tensions are a secondary factor. Rising tensions in the Middle East — from Houthi missile attacks and recent drone strikes on critical Saudi infrastructure, along with reports of possible pre-emptive strikes by Israel and Iran — have interacted with financial concerns in Europe, keeping U.S. Treasury yields near multi-year highs. This environment is very favorable for the US dollar, while gold faces continued downward pressure, as market participants closely await the minutes of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and influential central bank statements, in search of new directional indicators.

Technically, the price action on the chart still reflects a bearish consolidation phase since the monthly high in August. This bearish bias is also reinforced by momentum indicators, with the MACD hovering below the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 38, indicating weak buying interest rather than immediate oversold conditions. A break of the current price range and the key 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($4,098) will confirm continued structural declines, likely targeting the session low near $3,936. Conversely, any serious attempt to rally will face resistance from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($4,226), followed by resistance near the 100-period SMA ($4,254), with higher resistance at $4,517, and the ultimate target near the long-term high at $4,696.