FX.co ★ 25.01.2022: Oil slides, RUB collapses amid mounting political tensions - (Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD).

25.01.2022: Oil slides, RUB collapses amid mounting political tensions - (Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD).

Yesterday, oil prices failed to overcome the level of $89 per barrel. According to analysts, this could be attributed to a sell-off in global markets ahead of the Fed meeting. Nevertheless, unlike other assets, oil quotes are being supported by rising concerns about possible shortages. As a result, oil began to recover. Its upside potential is fueled by both insufficient crude production levels and geopolitical tensions. Any escalation of the conflict could lead to supply disruptions. This, in turn, could result in sanctions against the world’s second-largest oil exporter. A gradual stabilization of the situation is expected to reduce global risks. Besides, market participants are awaiting the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for February 2. Analysts believe that the next meeting of oil-exporting countries will only confirm that the pace of crude production increases is insufficient to meet growing demand. Against this background, oil prices have every chance of extending gains. So, perhaps today, the asset will start moving towards recent highs. Thus, Brent crude oil futures kicked off the week with a rebound from the resistance level of $89 per barrel. This was the fourth dive in a row. This time, the asset lost about 4%. However, oil prices have managed to recover and are currently hovering around the $87 mark. Given the tense market situation, this period of stagnation may take a while. The benchmark will most likely resume its bullish run if the price consolidates above $87.50 per barrel. Otherwise, oil prices will head for another resistance level. The beginning of the week turned out to be losing for both the ruble and for the Russian stock market as a whole. Russia’s MOEX index slid by more than 5%, and the dollar/ruble pair jumped to the level of 79 rubles per dollar. The reason for such intense volatility was political tensions. The fact that Berlin and Paris did not support London's initiative to evacuate the families of diplomatic staff from Ukraine, stopped the market from falling but did not change the situation dramatically. The US and Britain are waiting for a worst-case scenario, while the rest of Europe remains silent. Amid uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions, the ruble is not able to claw back at least part of its early losses. The Russian currency is trading under pressure from exclusively political factors. Thus, the ruble's growth potential will remain limited until things calm down. On Monday, after Russian stocks crashed, the dollar/ruble pair hit a new high. The quotes came close to the psychological level of 80 rubles. The dollar is overbought, but this fact may be neglected if speculation continues. If the price consolidates above the level of 80 rubles per dollar, the pair will extend gains. At the same time, there is a likelihood the trading instrument will enter a technical correction. Despite market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, gold managed to break above the level of $1,840 per ounce. This indicates that the precious metal is still perceived as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, this means that gold will begin to decline as the situation stabilizes. Only if tensions flare further, the metal will have a chance of gaining value. From a technical point of view, gold futures have been moving between the levels of $1,830 and $1,845 per ounce for the third day in a row. Moreover, their movement can hardly be called intense. The trading instrument may well enter a phase of stagnation. Gold will resume its bullish run only if the price is able to consolidate above $1,850 per ounce. Well, the start of the week turned out to be extremely volatile for the markets. Today, some assets may try to pare their losses. True, geopolitical risks could trigger a new wave of selling. Nevertheless, we wish you successful trading! See you soon!


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